As The Millennium Turns.(the outlook for the telecommunications industry in 2000)(Industry Trend or Event)(Column)

Past is prologue, but expect plenty of changes, too

Each January I devote this column to looking ahead to what the new year will bring. This time of course, we're not just rolling into a new year, but into a new century and new millennium, and although I've been in the business a long time, even I wasn't around the last time the millennium clock was changed.

However, I do believe that what goes around comes around, and that history is a great predictor of the future. And ironically, despite all the technological progress that's occurred during the past century, the industry still confronts basic issues.

For example, in the early 1900s, as the initial set of patents on telephone equipment began to expire, multiple manufacturers emerged. Then, depending on the location, two, three and sometimes even more companies began stringing wire across streets, creating a competitive environment for telephone service.

But it soon become clear that it wasn't in anyone's interest to have cables owned and operated by different companies running down the same streets. It was also evident that creating a local telephone network was highly capital-intensive, and so the idea of "natural monopolies" emerged for utilities--gas, electric and telephone. Specific franchises were awarded based on specific geographic territories, and consolidation began. Soon, there was just one phone company serving each franchise area.

As I watch the construction of competitive local facilities and the creation of multiple …